Overall monocrystalline supply chain flat, polycrystalline prices continue to fall
Source:Huatai     Pageviews:0     Release time:2019-12-27
Silicon material price
The price of monocrystalline materials this week has not changed much from last week. The price of domestic monocrystalline materials has remained stable at 73 yuan per kilogram; the price of polycrystalline materials has fallen to 53 yuan per kilogram, and high and low prices have fallen slightly. In polysilicon wafer production enterprises, there are relatively few pure-purchase polycrystalline materials, and most of them are matched with secondary sources to reduce the cost of silicon materials, and try to keep the cost of polysilicon wafers as close to the market as possible.
Recently, the demand for mono and poly crystals is quite different. The price difference between mono and poly crystals has clearly differentiated before the end of the year, and the price difference has come to 20 yuan per kilogram. Up to now, most single and polysilicon wafer companies have successively signed silicon material orders for January next year, while preparing for the use of polysilicon materials during the Spring Festival. It is predicted that the price of single polycrystalline silicon materials will remain stable before the Spring Festival. For the silicon material factory, the pressure on sales and shipping can be eased at this stage. From the perspective of supply, the basic supply of silicon materials is stable in the first half of 2020, and the new silicon material capacity is expected to be released in the third quarter. At the current stage, the silicon material plant mainly producing polycrystalline materials shows serious cost inversion. If prices continue to decline and remain low in the first half of 2020, it is estimated that there will still be several companies that will respond by reducing output or discontinuing production.
The part of overseas silicon materials mainly waits to see the trend of domestic silicon material prices. Under the condition of little exchange rate changes this week, the prices of single and polycrystalline materials fell slightly by 0.1 US dollars per kilogram, and the average prices were 8.4 and 6.7 per kilogram respectively. US dollars.
Wafer prices
Domestic polysilicon wafers continued to fall this week, with prices falling at RMB 1.53-1.58 per wafer. Although the price of polycrystalline materials has fallen sharply in the early stage, it has also been reflected in the polysilicon wafer segment, but the trend of falling prices has not stopped. For overseas polysilicon wafers, a few companies are still executing pre-orders. The market transaction price has fallen to between 0.216-0.22 dollars per piece, and the average price has fallen to 0.218 dollars per piece. It is expected that polysilicon wafer companies will sign orders for January next year, but As the price of domestic polysilicon wafers continues to decline, foreign judgments will also be synchronized, and the average price may have an opportunity to fall around $ 0.215 per wafer or even lower. In the early stage, polysilicon wafer production enterprises will gradually withdraw from the market under the pressure of cash losses, and it is expected that the polysilicon wafer production capacity may be less than 30GW in 2020.
Monocrystalline silicon wafer makers announced this week that the market price in January next year will remain the same as in December, and the market transaction price will remain stable at RMB 2.95-3.06 per chip. With the introduction of monocrystalline silicon wafer prices in January, battery factories have successively negotiated prices and quantities this week, confirming that production and supply during the Spring Festival are intact. Monocrystalline wafers are currently in short supply and demand will continue after the Spring Festival.
Cell price
Orders for battery cells have been finalized this week, and demand for monocrystalline battery cells will continue in January. Therefore, prices of PERC cells of various sizes have not changed. The price of M2 size has remained at 0.95 yuan per watt, and the size of G1 has remained at RMB 0.98 per watt. Overseas prices also held steady at previous levels.
On the other hand, as India ’s safeguard measure tax is about to be lowered in January, making India ’s peak season unsustainable at the end of this year, and making polycrystalline battery cells still difficult to find a way out, and continued to be subject to price reductions by component manufacturers, almost no component factories this week Is willing to agree to a price higher than 0.6 yuan per watt, the mainstream price came up to 2.75 yuan per piece. Overseas US dollar prices also fell. The official price announced by battery manufacturer Tongwei also lowered the price of polycrystalline battery cells, and the downward trend is expected to continue.
Component price
For the time being, the project subsidy in China next year seems difficult to be clear too soon, so the module price trend in the first half of next year is not optimistic. At present, the bid prices of domestic components delivered in early next year are still falling, and the price of polycrystalline components reflects the drop in prices in the middle and upper reaches, which has rapidly dropped to 1.5 yuan or less per watt. Although the demand for monocrystalline modules is good, because the demand is relatively deserted in the first half of next year, not only the price is still falling, but the end customers have high requirements for wattage.
On the other hand, although the price of photovoltaic glass has not changed significantly this week, supply is still tight. As glass is still a shortage in the overall supply chain next year, component factories have re-examined the thickness of component glass.