On December 18, the reporter learned from Zhonghuan that the company has reached cooperation with solar cell and module companies, and plans to gradually put in 16GW 210mm large silicon wafers in 2020, and mass production is expected in the first quarter of the year.
The reporter learned that Guangdong Aixu and Tongwei Co., Ltd. are the counterparts of Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. on the solar cell side, and the partner on the component side is Dongfang Risheng. This also means that Zhonghuan has searched for "allies" to promote 210mm silicon wafers in its downstream battery and module ends, and no longer "stands alone".
Another monocrystalline giant, Longji Co., Ltd., is pushing the 166mm large-size silicon wafer circuit. In May of this year, Longji announced the first public offer of 166mm large-size monocrystalline silicon wafers and has already sold them. In August this year, Longji introduced a 166mm large-size silicon wafer. As Longji shares are a vertically integrated industrial chain and the industrial synergy is relatively high, in contrast, Longji shares are faster in promoting the industrialization of 166mm products.
The industry believes that the 210mm route of Zhonghuan will have its own market space in the future, which will also put pressure on Longji to a certain extent. However, the market is still in a "budget" state, and it remains to be seen whether a certain climate can be formed in the industry.
In August this year, Zhonghuan took the lead in launching a 210mm ultra-large silicon wafer in the industry. However, due to factors such as industrial synergy, the capital market and the photovoltaic market are not optimistic and have caused controversy.
Four months later, in the midst of doubts, Zhonghuan finally ushered in new progress in the 210mm wafer downstream cooperation.
On December 12th, at the Oriental Risheng Supplier Conference, Central Europe International and Oriental Risheng reached a strategic cooperation on 210mm silicon wafer related matters and held an agreement signing ceremony. On the same day, Oriental Risheng launched the first 500W high-efficiency half-chip module based on a 210mm large silicon wafer.
At the same time, the reporter learned that Guangdong Aixu and Tongwei Co., Ltd. are the joint ventures of Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. on the solar cell side.
Data show that Oriental Risheng is the top ten global photovoltaic module shipments, with module shipments exceeding 5GW in 2018. Tongwei shares and Guangdong Aixu are important domestic solar cell providers. According to the 2019 PV InfoLink database, cell phone manufacturers shipped the first half of Tongwei and Guangdong Aixu ranked second.
It is worth noting that on the second day that Oriental Risheng and Zhonghuan announced the cooperation, the company's stock price reached an intraday limit of 13.2 yuan per share. At the same time, its market value increased by more than 1 billion yuan.
Huang Qiang, vice president of Oriental Risheng, said in an interview with reporters that Oriental Risheng has a capacity of 210mm modules of 3GW or more, module equipment investment of about 300 million yuan, superimposed infrastructure investment, rolling budget and other about 1.2 billion yuan. Considering customer communication and the demands of stakeholders, the company expects to achieve mass production in the third to fourth quarter of 2020.
As for the reasons for choosing the 210mm large silicon wafer technology path, Huang Qiang said that China's photovoltaic industry has now reached the critical period of industry development in 2020, and the state subsidies will gradually exit, and the market dominance will become stronger. The industry will be more biased towards customer value in the future, and the cost of electricity will become the dominant one. The 210mm technology solution will bring a brand-new technology platform to the industry. At present, it is estimated that the cost of power consumption will be reduced by 6% in the application terminal. It will become an important development direction for the industry in the future.
He predicted that the new production capacity in 2019 will still be mainly 166mm and below, but it will be converted to a 210mm production line in 2020. It is estimated that in May 2020, the production capacity of 210mm silicon wafers may exceed 10GW, the corresponding battery production capacity will exceed 15GW, and the module production speed will also accelerate. "There may still be doubts in the industry now, but from 2020, 210mm products will occupy an important position in the market, and it will form an overwhelming advantage in the market from 2021 to 2022."
In the early days, Oriental Risheng did not plan to invest in the corresponding battery production line, but temporarily chose to outsource and cooperate with battery providers.
At the same time, the reporter learned from Tongwei and Guangdong Aixu employees that the new capacity of Tongwei will be compatible with 210mm specifications. The first batch of 4GW capacity is expected to be put into production in the second quarter of next year. Guangdong Aixu Zhejiang's second phase production line plans 3.8GW, which is also compatible with 210mm specifications.
In this regard, the reporter confirmed to Tongwei and Guangdong Aixu, but the two sides did not confirm the specific capacity of the production line to the reporter, but said that "the new capacity of 166mm and 210mm batteries will be made."
In addition, the reporter also learned that the component company Trina Solar is also advancing the 210mm production line plan. In this regard, Trina Solar said, "There are plans, the specific situation is not clear."
Silicon wafers are located upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, and their rapid changes will also inevitably cause changes in their own downstream cells and modules.
Research information from CITIC Construction Investment shows that photovoltaic wafer size standards have undergone three changes. From 1981 to 2012, the side length of the silicon wafer increased from 100mm and 125mm to 156mm; from 2013 to 2017, the side length of the silicon wafer changed from 156mm to 156.75mm; the current ongoing change is the side length of the silicon wafer from 156.75mm to 158.75mm square Single crystal and 166mm large silicon wafer transition. It can be expected that with the introduction of 210mm silicon wafers by Zhonghuan, silicon wafers of different specifications on the market will become more diversified.
Of course, before the change, different companies have different choices in product size. According to reports, according to the actual situation of the company's capital, production line equipment, and product yield, a large part of the current choice of transformation on the original production line equipment, or adhere to the size of 158.75mm, or iterate to 166mm size. And the enterprises that planned the 210mm production line earlier will not be too much dragged down by the old production line, and have the funding conditions to invest in new capacity, which is in line with corporate strategic considerations.
The card battle is still to be broken
There is no eternal leader and no eternal dormancy.
"Central may be in order to lock up in advance, and do not want to always follow Longji." For the layout of Zhonghuan's 210mm silicon wafer, a long-term observer of the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain believes.
In fact, if silicon wafers are not used for their own purposes, Zhonghuan's wafer shipments are not less than those of Longji. However, given the comprehensive consideration of the latter's influence on the layout of the vertically integrated industrial chain, technological competitiveness, and market value of the company, Longji is an undisputed "photovoltaic brother".
For the market pattern of 210mm and 166mm products next year, Zhang Hao, director of marketing of JA Solar, told reporters that 210mm products may occupy some markets next year, but this also depends on the blocking degree of 166mm products.
The reporter also noticed that in May of this year, Longji Co., Ltd. announced the first public offer of 166mm large-size single crystal silicon wafers and has already sold them. In August this year, Longji introduced a 166mm large-size silicon wafer.
However, because Longji shares are a vertically integrated industrial chain and the industrial synergy is relatively high, in contrast, Longji shares are faster in promoting the industrialization of 166mm products.
Earlier, Long Yingle ’s assistant to the chairman Wang Yingge said that Hi-MO4 modules using 166mm monocrystalline silicon wafers have more than 2GW of global intent orders and will be available in the third quarter of this year.
On December 20, Longji shares revealed to reporters that its 166mm module production capacity is expected to reach 20GW in 2020.
At the same time, since the beginning of this year, Longji has been continuously expanding its production and wants to continue to form a competitive advantage in scale and cost. On December 16th, Longji Co., Ltd. responded to the Shanghai Stock Exchange interactive platform about the production capacity of silicon wafers, batteries and modules in 2020. According to the three-year strategic plan formulated by the company in 2019, the company's silicon wafer, battery and module production capacity in 2020 were respectively Reached 50GW, 15GW and 25GW. The company is currently accelerating the progress of capacity production, and the latest plan will be announced with the new annual report.
However, Wang Xian, a person in charge of a solar cell company, believes that at present Central may put some pressure on Longji. In the first half of next year, the market will be mainly 158.75mm products, and some 166mm products, and 210mm will be started in the second half of the year.
As for whether there is a plan to follow up on 210mm size products, as of press time, Longji has not responded.
Then, the mass production of 210mm products is imminent. Will it restrict the strategic choice of Longji?
An executive of Longji Leye told reporters that currently (seeing) it will not. All existing production capacity in the industry cannot be upgraded. The production of 210mm products is still unknown. The specific results of 210mm products next year need to be seen.
Zhonghuan shares told reporters that the company will gradually invest 16GW of 210mm large-size silicon wafers in 2020. As for whether the 16GW 210mm silicon wafer can be fully digested, Zhonghuan shares said that according to the company's planning, this is more reasonable and meets development expectations. It can be seen.
As for the investment progress, the reporter learned that 210mm battery equipment will be installed and debugged in the first half of next year, and it is expected that product shipment will be in force in the second half of the year. Xian Wang told reporters that the current 210mm battery manufacturers are in the silicon wafer sample and sample stage.
In addition, a market leader of photovoltaic equipment provider Jiejia Weichuang told reporters that Tongwei and Aixu have just ordered equipment for 210mm battery production lines, and the purchase volume is not large. "After all, it is not clear, and there is a long time before the supply of 210 silicon wafers, it is still necessary to do 166mm (product)." At the same time, the reporter called the leader of the photovoltaic equipment provider Smart as an investor. Sale of 210mm battery and module-related line equipment. "
"Large silicon wafers are the development trend of the photovoltaic industry. Large wafers mean high power, and high power means high yield. In the future photovoltaic market, 210mm products will of course have their own market space." Wang Xian admitted, "From the perspective of manufacturing, consider It will take time for large-scale promotion to reach various risks and the matching speed of auxiliary materials and equipment in various links. In addition, this depends on the speed of Central Ring's own promotion of 210 wafers. "